26 May 2022
Daily Newsletter
1.1M Afghan Children Under 5 Could Face Severe Malnutrition This Year
The Facts
According to the UN, 1.1M children under the age of five will likely face severe acute malnutrition, also known as severe wasting, this year in Afghanistan.
Severe wasting is the most lethal form of malnutrition. Food is so lacking that a child's immune system is compromised, making them vulnerable to multiple bouts of disease. Eventually, they become unable to absorb nutrients and may die without intervention.
The number of children under five admitted to health facilities with severe wasting mounted from 16k in Mar. 2020 to 18k in Mar. 2021, and then leapt to 28k in Mar. 2022.
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Drought, while a contributing factor to Afghanistan's crisis, is not the driving force; sanctions are. Western nations' decisions to cut the Taliban off from international finance and development aid have enveloped the country in a crisis that's accelerating at an unprecedented pace. While Western countries have withdrawn their military presence, the war continues on a new battlefront.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Taliban's return to power and the humanitarian crisis that followed have confronted the West with a hopeless dilemma How can they provide international assistance to a country that desperately needs it while ensuring the aid money doesn't enrich Taliban's corrupt leaders? The answer they can't.
Spy Agency Contracts Awarded to Commercial Satellite Firms
The Facts
The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), the US intelligence agency that operates the nation's spy satellites, will award billions of dollars in contracts over the next decade to three commercial satellite companies: Maxar, BlackSky, and Planet.
The NRO acknowledged the contracts were a "historic expansion" of its acquisition strategy and stated that the increasing availability of commercial companies' imagery will improve the agency's resilience and enable an integrated approach to national security.
The agency has also said that the awards come under the Electro-Optical Commercial Layer program, which will support 500k federal civil agency users.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
This is a win-win situation. The government still designs and operates the most exquisite and cutting-edge intelligence satellites, but commercial companies can offer ways to cheaply cover much of the world. Because the commercial images are unclassified, intelligence agencies can share data and collaborate more easily with allies and partners.
Establishment-critical narrative
Commercial satellite imagery technology must be regulated. The government needs to impose stricter limits on commercial satellite technology. Soon, anyone from ad companies to terrorist organizations could be monitoring innocent citizens using technology previously reserved for government intelligence agencies. It is a slippery slope to this Orwellian distopia.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country in the year 2050, will be better than 15.7cm, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 92 Roundup: Ukraine Calls for Heavy Weapons Amidst Donbas Bombardment
The Facts
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Thurs. called for more heavy weapons to be sent to the country, saying: "The only position where Russia is better than us, it's the amount of heavy weapons they have. Without artillery, without multiple launch rocket systems, we won't to be able to push them back."
This comes as over 40 towns in the Donbas region reportedly faced bombardment on Thurs. morning as Russian forces drew nearer to encircling Severondonetsk, a key strategic goal for Moscow. Ukraine's Pres. Zelenskyy stated on Wed. night that Russian troops outnumber Ukrainians in some parts of the east, while also making pleas for more weapons from the west.
Continuing conflict in the east of Ukraine has prompted criticism of alleged NATO inaction in response to the invasion. Kuleba said NATO allies had "done nothing" to stop Russian attacks and that the institution had been sidelined.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
As the war shifts to the strategically important Donbas regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, the US and its allies need to continue to do everything in their power to arm Ukraine with all the weapons they need. Doing so is the only way to push Putin's forces back as was done in Kyiv.
Pro-Russia narrative
As stated by Putin, the whole purpose of the war was never to invade Kyiv, but to liberate the ethnically Russian people of Donetsk and Luhansk, who have been subjected to systematic killing by Ukrainian forces for not recognizing the 2014 coup in Kyiv. This tragedy could also have been avoided if NATO had kept its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China to Propose Major Collaboration Deal with Pacific Islands
The Facts
China is reportedly proposing a major initiative with Pacific Island nations in policing, maritime cooperation and cybersecurity, while also developing a scholarship program for more than 2k workers and young diplomats.
Drafts of the documents were reportedly sent to 10 nations prior to a meeting next week in Fiji, when Pacific Island leaders are scheduled to gather with the PRC's foreign minister, Wang Yi.
The President of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in turn urged 21 Pacific Island leaders to reject the PRC proposal, out of fear it could trigger a "cold war" between China and the West.
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
The PRC's push into the South Pacific is destabilizing, and will require the US and Australia to adopt a new security approach as China grabs a foothold in Oceania. This new framework may lead the Pacific Islands to become a hotbed for a conflict between the US and China.
Pro-China narrative
China is a popular and supportive regional partner in the Pacific. In fact, Australia and other Western powers act as hegemonic colonists, intimidating neighbors who don't follow its orders. Beijing offers a wide range of economic and security development options without the demanding political conditions of the West.
Establishment-critical narrative
Pacific Island nations have every right to play both sides. The current security situation in the South Pacific makes it possible for less influential countries to benefit from the angst of regional powers. The Solomon Islands and its neighbors can leverage this to maximize aid from both China and the West.
Cynical narrative
None of the powers with an eye on Oceania - including the US, Australia, New Zealand, China, and Japan - are taking the the true security concerns of the Pacific Islands seriously. The region is threatened by severe climate impacts, but these powers are more concerned with their own self interests. The security and future of the Pacific must be determined by Pacific Island countries on their own.
Biden Keeping Iran's Revolutionary Guard On Terror Blacklist
The Facts
On Tues., Biden reportedly made a final decision to keep Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on the US Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list, according to a senior US official.
Tehran's demand to lift the IRGC's FTO status was one of the last major sticking points in the revival of talks regarding the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Biden's decision comes weeks after the US Senate passed a non-binding resolution in Mar. prohibiting the government from revoking the IRGC's FTO designation.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
As the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, Tehran relies on the IRGC to destabilize the entire Middle East. Although the IRGC and its paramilitary arm, the Quds Force, have been subject to sanctions since 2007 even without their FTO designation, delisting them would send a fatal signal of weakness not only to the regime in Tehran, but also to the autocrats in China and Russia - with unforeseeable consequences for security and peace.
Establishment-critical narrative
The FTO designation has little to no practical value and is mere tokenism. When Washington fears - as it has for years - that Iran is "just weeks" away from being able to build a nuclear weapon, reviving the nuclear agreement should be the highest US national security interest - not targeting the IRGC.
Nerd narrative
There's a 17% chance that the US will rejoin the Iran nuclear deal before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ken Paxton Defeats George P. Bush in GOP Primary for Texas AG
The Facts
Incumbent Ken Paxton soundly defeated challenger George P. Bush in the GOP run-off primary election for Texas AG on Tuesday.
Paxton, who is under federal indictment for securities fraud and faced an FBI probe of allegations of abuse of office made by former aides, was supported by former Pres. Trump in his re-election bid.
Bush, who currently serves as the Texas Land Commissioner, is the son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and nephew of former Pres. George W. Bush. He is the first Bush to lose a statewide election in Texas in over 40 years.
The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
249 out of Texas's 254 counties voted to send the Bush political dynasty to the dustbin of history, opting instead to re-elect Ken Paxton and his strict approach to illegal immigration and the abuses of big tech. This marks the end of the corrupt Bush family, to include their secret dealings with the Chinese Communist Party.
Democratic narrative
Common sense would tell you that Texas voters would not cast ballots for a man indicted on securities fraud to be their chief law enforcement officer. But there's no longer any room for common sense in Republican politics. For example, instead of tackling gun violence in a sensible way, Paxton proposes to arm teachers.
Oz & McCormick Headed to Recount in PA Senate Primary
The Facts
Pennsylvania Sec. of State Leigh Chapman announced that she will order county elections boards to begin a recount under a state law that requires recounts for elections decided within a 0.5% margin.
Trump-endorsed former TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz currently leads David McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, by 912 votes out of a total of 1,342,580 ballots reported, a margin of only 0.06%.
The counties will begin the recount next week and have until June 8 to report the results to the state.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
The hypocrisy of the GOP is on full display in the PA Senate race. Some of the same Republicans who battled in court over "election integrity" in 2020 now want to abandon the rules when they don't suit them.
Pro-Trump narrative
McCormick is likely going to come up short. His legal team is following the Democrats' playbook, a tactic that could have long-term harmful consequences for elections in the Commonwealth of PA.
Nerd narrative
There's a 72% chance that Republicans will win both the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Witnesses Said Trump Approved of Jan. 6 Chants to 'Hang Mike Pence'
The Facts
Two witnesses have testified to the committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot that former Pres. Trump reacted approvingly to the rioters chanting "Hang Mike Pence," according to The New York Times.
At least one witness recalled White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows commenting on Trump complaining that then-VP Pence was being taken to a safe area. Cassidy Hutchinson, a former aide to Meadows, confirmed that story when asked by the committee.
Trump allegedly also made a remark about Pence deserving to be hanged, but his tone was unclear.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
This is damning for the former president. He didn't just rile up the crowd but also directed them to pressure Pence to delay Congress' count of electors. This could also be why he didn't do more to stop the riot, and might explain why Meadows won't cooperate with the committee.
Republican narrative
Rather than trying to solve real problems like soaring gas prices or rocketing inflation, Democrats insist on focusing on the past and Donald Trump. Their smear campaign against the former president is simply a midterm strategy and a desperate attempt to distract from Biden's approval ratings being in the tank.
Senegal: 11 Newborns Killed In Hospital Fire
The Facts
On Thu., Senegal's Pres. Macky Sall announced the death of at least 11 babies in a fire at the neonatal unit of the Abdou Aziz Sy Dabakh Hospital in Tivaouane - a city 50 miles from the capital, Dakar.
According to the city's mayor, Demba Diop, three babies were saved from the blaze that spread through the hospital, which had opened recently.
Investigations are still underway but preliminary analysis indicates that the fire - which reportedly started on Wed. around 8 pm - was caused by a short circuit.
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
There have been too many disasters in Senegal's public health system recently to argue that this incident is just an unlucky accident. While the country may be lauded internationally for its healthcare system in urban areas, Senegal's rural population is experiencing a healthcare crisis. The country has an obligation to thoroughly review and address the quality of service in the hospitals.
Pro-establishment narrative
Many healthcare systems In Africa struggle to meet routine day-to-day demands as they confront an onslaught of disasters, climate change, diseases and demographic changes. The international community has an obligation to help them strengthen ties with emergency response systems and key infrastructure sectors like water, transportation and electricity. Building resilience now will help to limit tragedies in the future.
Commission: Replace Confederate Names for 9 US Army Bases
The Facts
A congressional commission has recommended renaming nine US Army bases that are currently named after Confederate officers to recognize people that the commission states "embody the best of the United States Army and America."
Some of the people the commission recommends naming the bases after include World War I and II heroes, the country's first female Medal of Honor winner, and a helicopter pilot credited with rescuing 29 South Vietnamese troops in 1969, among others.
The recommendations, which are part of the military's broad effort to confront racial injustice, will be part of a final report due to Congress by Oct. 1.
The Spin
Right narrative
This is nothing more than a cancel culture exercise that's flawed and inconsistent. We can't judge people who lived 150 years ago by modern standards. The renaming is an effort to deliberately destroy America's past - and for "woke" leaders to flex their powers to make it happen.
Left narrative
The commission's recommendations cover a diverse swath of Americans, including women and minorities, who are two long-ignored populations that have served or supported the army since its inception. It's about time the Army stops honoring treasonous Confederate generals and instead highlights those who've dedicated their lives to serving in it.
Twitter Fined $150M on Accusation of Deceptive Practices
The Facts
The US Dept. of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) announced Wed. that Twitter will pay $150M and put in new safeguards after federal regulators alleged the platform failed to protect users' data for 6 years.
Federal prosecutors alleged the company collected phone numbers and emails - used for account security measures - and then fed them into advertising tools without disclosing such practices.
The FTC's complaint alleged that Twitter violated a 2011 order barring the company from misleading the public about how it uses consumer information.
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
This is another example that, with Big Tech, not only is your data taken from you, it's ultimately used to influence your behavior. Ad targeting practices can range from simply annoying to outright treacherous, such as when fake news and accounts impact otherwise free and fair elections. Citizens suffer the ramifications while these tech giants profit, and there should be better regulation.
Pro-establishment narrative
Unfortunately, regulation squeezes small businesses in the tech sector. Conforming to government rules helps only to entrench dominant companies. For smaller firms, compliance is costly to administer, and innovation and healthy competition is-all-to-often reduced.
