17 May 2022
Daily Newsletter
Day 83: Ukrainian Fighters Surrender in Besieged Mariupol Plant; Russia Bombs Lviv
The Facts
After weeks of fighting and bombardment, hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers holed up in the Azovstal steelworks plant in Mariupol reportedly surrendered on Tuesday. This comes as wounded fighters were evacuated late Mon. night through humanitarian corridors agreed with Russia.
Ukraine's deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, said 53 heavily wounded fighters were taken to a hospital in the Russian-controlled town of Novoazovsk in Donetsk. Over 200 others were evacuated to a facility in Olenivka, also in Donetsk. Russia says 265 fighters, including 51 wounded, have surrendered.
Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who confirmed the evacuations – though avoided the term "surrender" – said efforts were being made to rescue the last of those trapped within the Azovstal plant. Ukrainian authorities wouldn't say how many remain, but some estimates have put the number at 600.
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US to Redeploy ~500 Troops to Somalia
The Facts
On Mon., Pres. Biden approved the redeployment of up to 500 troops to Somalia in an effort to help the country's military counter the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab.
This reverses an order by former Pres. Trump to withdraw nearly all 750 US troops stationed in Somalia by Jan. 2021. Subsequently, the troops were moved to neighboring countries and deployed back into Somalia on a rotational basis.
The now-approved redeployment follows a proposal by US Def. Sec. Lloyd Austin to restore a "permanent US military presence" in the Horn of Africa nation to increase the effectiveness in fighting al-Shabaab.
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite Biden's decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and pledge to end Washington's endless wars, US troops are now returning to Somalia without any clear strategic objective. It's highly questionable whether the Somali security crisis can be resolved militarily this time, after several years of failure by the US and its regional and international allies.
Pro-establishment narrative
The US cannot evade its international responsibility by simply declaring its "forever wars" to be over. In the fight against terrorism, the world depends on the US military's strength. In Somalia, the goal is not to win the war on terror, but to manage it in a way that minimizes security risks and ensures a degree of stability.
Yemen's Sanaa Airport Reopens to Commercial Flights After 6 Years
The Facts
On Mon., a Yemenia flight carrying +100 passengers was the first commercial flight in nearly 6 yrs to take off from Sanaa, Yemen - a major step forward in a peace process that has provided rare relief from conflict in the country.
The airport has been closed to commercial traffic since 2016 due to a blockade by the Saudi-led coalition - which backs the internationally recognized government and has been fighting Iran-aligned Houthis who took control of Sanaa in 2014.
The flight is part of an April UN-brokered two-month truce between both sides that, among other conditions, allows two commercial flights a week to and from Sanaa to Jordan and Egypt.
The Spin
Narrative A
This is a massive achievement, and an important stepping stone towards lasting peace. Reopening the airport was long overdue and will save thousands of lives. The conflicting sides have demonstrated that they can find common ground to benefit the Yemeni people, offering hope for further truces.
Narrative B
While the reopening of the Sanaa airport is a step in the right direction that may address humanitarian issues and could pave the way to a military de-escalation, it doesn't mean the end of the conflict as the warring sides have yet to find a comprehensive political solution.
Establishment-critical narrative
The war in Yemen, now in its eighth year, is every bit as brutal as what's taking place in Ukraine. The West's failure to address this humanitarian disaster or cover it in the media with any sort of urgency says a lot about its inherent bias and who it considers worthy and unworthy victims.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the ceasefire in Yemen will hold for its intended duration, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rep. Cheney Accuses House GOP of Enabling White Supremacy
The Facts
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) took to Twitter on Mon. to accuse House Republican leadership of enabling "white nationalism, white supremacy, and antisemitism," and urge them to "renounce and reject these views and those who hold them."
Her comments come days after ten Black Americans were murdered in a Buffalo, NY supermarket in what authorities are investigating as a racially-motivated mass shooting.
The Buffalo shooter was allegedly motivated by white supremacist ideologies, including the "great replacement theory," which holds that there's a conspiracy to change the demographics and voting patterns of the US by encouraging immigration.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
These divisive and hateful ideas are core to the messaging of today's GOP. Look no further than Rep. Stefanik (R-NY), the Chairwoman of the House Republican Caucus, who "doubled down" on the rhetoric of the "Great Replacement Theory" in a series of Facebook ads in the aftermath of the Buffalo shooting.
Republican narrative
RINOs like Liz Cheney have teamed up with the radical left, open-border, globalist Democrats, and their sycophantic partners in the media to weaponize this tragedy in order to help them hold onto power in the 2022 midterms. This is nothing more than a despicable attempt to impugn patriotic Republican lawmakers, including Stefanik, who in fact has been known to take pro-migration stances in the past.
Somalia's former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Returns to Power
The Facts
On Sun., Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected as Somalia's president, defeating incumbent Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed in a tightly security controlled parliamentary election. He was immediately sworn in following the win.
Mohamud, who previously served as president from 2012 to 2017, was elected by the country's 328 legislators in a third round of voting. The election was delayed for more than a year due to political disputes and a deteriorating security situation.
Somalia uses an 'indirect election' process in which legislators, who elect the president by secret ballot, are themselves elected by delegates chosen by the country's clans. Mohamud's win marks the sixth indirect election held in Somalia.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's return to the presidency is a new glimmer of hope for Somalia. If the US government adopts a more holistic strategy in fighting terror and provides crucial assistance in combating the devastating drought, there is a reason for modest optimism.
Establishment-critical narrative
Regardless of who governs the country, the devastating security situation in Somalia is unlikely to change decisively as long as the West, and above all the US, continue intervening in and destabilizing the Horn of Africa. The military intervention of NATO countries, as well as the acts of Somalia's own military in allegedly fighting Islamic militants, primarily serves geopolitical interests.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least 10 countries will formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state by July, 2059, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DeSantis Signs Bill Banning Protests Outside Private Residences
The Facts
Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL-R) signed legislation on Mon. that will make it illegal to protest outside of private residences with the intent to harass or disturb occupants.
Protesters can only be arrested if they ignore law enforcement's orders to disperse. Violators could be charged with a second-degree misdemeanor, and face 60 days in jail and a fine of up to $500.
The new law follows a recent string of protests by pro-choice activists at the homes of Supreme Court justices in response to a leaked draft opinion that suggested that Roe v. Wade may be overturned.
The Spin
Left narrative
This is an unconstitutionally vague law that will have a chilling effect on First Amendment rights. The protests outside of Supreme Court justices' houses have been largely peaceful, but DeSantis is quick to label demonstrators who dissent against his agenda as "unruly mobs".
Right narrative
The pro-abortion activists protesting outside of Supreme Court Justices' homes are trying to bully the court into reversing its decision and must be prosecuted. DeSantis' new law is a strong move against leftist intimidation.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90% chance Roe v. Wade will be overturned before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Taiwan's President Condemns California Church Shooting
The Facts
On Tues., Taiwan Pres. Tsai Ing-wen condemned the attack at a church in CA attended by a Taiwanese congregation. She assigned the island's chief representative in the US to provide assistance to the impacted community.
The shooting carried out on Sun. left one person dead and five others wounded at Geneve Presbyterian Church in Laguna Woods, Orange County, during a lunch reception.
The fatal victim of the attack, a 52-year-old physician named John Cheng, has been praised as a hero after tackling the suspect, a move that prevented additional deaths.
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
Instead of focusing on the suspect's nationality and trying to misrepresent this tragic event to incite anti-China rhetoric and inflame tensions across the Taiwan Straits, Western media should start questioning why gun violence is so frequent in the US.
Anti-China narrative
This was clearly a politically-motivated hate crime against the Taiwanese people. The shooter appeared supportive of PRC-Taiwan unification, and has a documented hatred towards the island. It's not a coincidence he targeted a Presbyterian church, a prominent supporter of independence in Taiwan.
Congress Holds First UFO Hearing in Fifty Years
The Facts
On Tues., Congress held its first hearing on UFOs in more than half a century, with top US intelligence officials and members of Congress agreeing that unexplained aerial phenomena (UAPs) are real, but remain a mystery.
The hearing was convened by the House of Intelligence Committee's Counterterrorism, Counterintelligence, and Counterproliferation subcommittee.
The US government reportedly has around 400 UAP reports in its database, an increase from the 144 records that were publicly disclosed in a draft report last June.
The Spin
Narrative A
While UAPs are currently unexplained, they are real and could pose a potential national security threat. There has long been a stigma associated with UAPs that has gotten in the way of proper intelligence analysis, and it's time that changes. These phenomena must be taken seriously.
Narrative B
While it's a good sign that Congress is taking the subject seriously, the hearing proved as inconclusive as last year's limited report. To truly get to the bottom of one of the world's greatest mysteries, the government needs to view the UAP issue as fundamentally scientific, not just a matter of military intelligence.
Narrative C
The US is currently faced with extreme gas prices, record-high inflation, violent crime that is wreaking havoc, and supply shortages. Yet, Congress still finds time to hold a hearing on UFOs. Is that really the best use of its time and resources?
Nerd narrative
There is an 18% chance that conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be discovered within our solar system by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
