Climate change

WMO Warns of 90% El Niño Chance by Late 2026

Is El Niño a catastrophic climate crisis in the making or a natural weather cycle that communities can adapt to?

Published JUN 2

WMO Warns of 90% El Niño Chance by Late 2026

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Above: A tourist uses a portable fan to cool down on a street in Shanghai, China, on June 2, 2026. Image credit: Yin Liqin/China News Service/VCG/Getty Images

The Facts

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of an 80% chance of an El Niño event forming between June and August 2026, rising to near or above 90% by November. Most forecast models indicate the event will be at least moderate, possibly strong.
World Meteorological Organization
The Economic Times
On Tuesday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said El Niño is arriving "with 90% certainty" and called on the world to treat it as "an urgent climate warning." He warned that impacts "will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed."
World Meteorological Organization on X
Politico
Daily Mail
The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year ever recorded, as global temperatures reached approximately 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
France 24
standard.co.uk
Subsurface water temperatures across the tropical Pacific were exceeding 6°C above average in late April to mid-May, providing what the WMO described as a substantial reservoir of heat feeding rising surface temperatures. The Southern Oscillation Index was also consistent with the development of El Niño conditions.
World Meteorological Organization
BBC News
El Niño typically brings heavier rainfall to parts of southern South America, the southern U.S., the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while drier conditions affect Central America, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia. Warm Pacific waters can also fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific while hindering Atlantic storm formation.
Guardian
The Economic Times
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said advance seasonal forecasts and early-warning systems are vital to protect lives and economies. She noted that 128 countries have multi-hazard early-warning systems in place, with the U.N. targeting universal coverage by the end of 2027.
UN News on X
Politico
France 24

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The Spin

Climate-concerned narrative

The WMO is sounding the alarm for good reason — an 80% chance of El Niño forming by August, combined with climate change, is a recipe for catastrophic floods, droughts and heatwaves worldwide. Model forecasts show a potential peak of +3.3°C in the Niño 3.4 region, which would shatter records. The destruction ahead is a preview of what will become the norm within five years.

Jeff Berardelli on X

Reuters

Climate-skeptic narrative

The El Niño panic is overblown — red on a temperature map doesn't mean catastrophe everywhere at once, and any warming spike from added water vapor is mostly temporary. The biggest super El Niño in recent memory, 1997-1998, actually produced more weather benefits than harm and suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity. El Niños are entirely natural, and fossil fuels give communities the resources needed to adapt and cope.

Steve Milloy on X