US Midterms: Texas Senate Democratic Primary

Does Jasmine Crockett's rapid rise to anti-Trump stardom make her the best candidate or do Democrats need Talarico's red district-flipping skillset more?
US Midterms: Texas Senate Democratic Primary
Above: Texas state Rep. James Talarico (left) and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett debate in Georgetown, Texas, on Jan. 24, 2026. Image credit: Bob Daemmrich/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin


Narrative A

While Jasmine Crockett wasn't chosen this time, her unique ability to openly fight Republicans will continue to be utilized in this election. After building her career as a civil rights attorney and public defender, she then unseated an incumbent in the Texas House and helped lead the 2021 quorum break over voting laws. In Congress, she has been an outspoken critic of Trump, Governor Abbott and AG Paxton, while securing federal resources for her district. With her support, Talarico now has an even better shot at flipping the seat blue.

Narrative B

For Democrats focused on electability, James Talarico emerged as the nominee after building a well-funded, organized campaign that outpaced Crockett’s more limited infrastructure and late start. A former teacher and state lawmaker, he emphasizes broad coalition-building and disciplined messaging, helping him expand support across regions and voter groups. With Crockett and other Democrats now rallying behind him, his campaign is positioned to unify the party and compete statewide in the general election


Metaculus Prediction



Go Deeper

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.2.2

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.2.2