Climate change

US Agency: Risks of El Niño Persisting Through Spring 2027 Rising

Is El Niño a climate catastrophe demanding urgent action or a natural cycle being exploited for political gain?

JUL 10·Updated JUL 11

US Agency: Risks of El Niño Persisting Through Spring 2027 Rising

Story

Above: People try to cope with the heat in London, United Kingdom, on July 8, 2026. Image credit: Rasid Necati Aslim/Anadolu/Getty Images

The Facts

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center predicted an 81% chance on Thursday that a "very strong" El Niño that ranks among the largest on record since 1950 will develop by the end of the year, with a 97% probability that conditions will persist through spring 2027.
guardian
ABC News
Fox Weather
The Straits Times
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared El Niño had formed in June and warned it was forecast to strengthen rapidly, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events worldwide. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event "will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions."
Climate Home News
ABC News
The Panama Canal Authority reduced the maximum authorized draft for Neopanamax lock vessels to 49.5 feet on July 3, with further reductions to 49 feet and then 48.5 feet scheduled for July 24 and Aug. 15, respectively. It cited hydrological conditions linked to the strengthening El Niño for the reductions. The canal carries roughly 5% of global maritime trade.
Los Angeles Times
gCaptain
This comes as El Niño is projected to create an energy generation gap of nearly 18 TWh in India by reducing wind and hydropower output while driving up air conditioning demand. Some officials predict that the shortfall could result in an estimated 17 million tonnes of additional CO2 from increased coal-fired generation.
Dw.Com
Energyandcleanair
Amid concerns over El Niño's impact, the African Union Commission convened the 21st African Continental Climate Outlook Forum in Lusaka in June, producing a policy brief warning that the cost of climate inaction linked to El Niño could exceed 5% of regional GDP in some areas.
The Conversation
African Union
African Union
Meanwhile, a new study published in Science Advances on Wednesday suggested that marine cloud brightening — spraying seawater into clouds to increase their reflectivity — could reduce the magnitude of El Niño events by dimming sunlight over the Pacific. Researchers modeled the technique using effects observed during the 2019-2020 Australian bushfire season.
Wired
Science News

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The Spin

Climate-concerned narrative

A record-breaking Super El Niño is barreling toward the planet, and the window to act is closing fast. With an 81% chance that this event ranks among the strongest since 1950, millions face drought, flooding and displacement — especially across Africa, where 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries are already in the crosshairs. Science is ahead of policy, and that gap is going to cost lives.

CNN

Dw.Com

guardian

Climate-skeptic narrative

El Niño is a natural, cyclical weather pattern — not a climate catastrophe. Using this event to fuel climate alarmism ignores the science: ENSO moves heat around the climate system without adding any. Misrepresenting El Niño as proof of a climate emergency is a rhetorical move that distorts public understanding and lets bad-faith actors hijack a legitimate weather phenomenon.

Steve Milloy on X