JPMorgan: UK Unemployment to Hit 5.5%, Surpass Pandemic Peak
The Spin
Narrative A
The jobs market is collapsing under the weight of disastrous government policies, with unemployment set to surge past pandemic levels to 5.5% as businesses refuse to hire after getting hammered by a £25 billion ($17.3 billion) National Insurance raid and reckless minimum wage hikes. Young workers are being priced out of the market entirely, with youth unemployment hitting 16.1% — the highest in over a decade — while graduate hiring has plummeted by well over 10% in recent years.
Narrative B
The labor market has actually stabilized and is poised for recovery, with data revisions showing 50,000 fewer job losses than initially reported and worker churn picking up — a clear sign the bottom has been reached. Employment is still rising alongside unemployment because more people are entering the workforce, which reflects healthy participation rates rather than mass layoffs. Incoming rate cuts will also support gradual improvement.