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The Sudanese Armed Forces are winning, plain as day — seizing the National Export Highway and retaking key areas like Umm Qarfa and Juraikh proves the RSF is on the run. Displaced civilians are returning home in massive numbers, down 25% from peak displacement, because the army is actually delivering results. A new committee to document missing civilians and negotiate detainee exchanges shows a government serious about accountability.
The SAF's battlefield gains mean nothing when Iranian-supplied drones are killing civilians in residential neighborhoods and the army is propping itself up with militias that have already committed atrocities. Analysts warn these armed groups — like Sudan Shield Forces — are the next RSF waiting to happen, with unchecked power and zero accountability. Swapping one armed faction for another is a blueprint for the next war.