Backing frontier AI means accepting that outsized bets carry outsized risk, and seasoned investors understand that trade-off. Judging a company rebuilding the computing stack by one year of cash burn misses how venture math actually works. The payoff from funding a genuine platform shift dwarfs the losses racked up getting there.
OpenAI's math doesn't add up. It spends hundreds of billions but generates only a fraction of that in revenue, while a profitable rival and cheap Chinese systems squeeze the margin. Dumping product after product right before a float reveals a scramble for relevance. A stumble at this scale would drag down every valuation propped up by AI growth forecasts.
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