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Ice seems to be the culprit in this tragedy. A tailplane caked with ice loses effectiveness, and once control authority runs out the nose drops and the jet is gone in seconds, with no gradual glide and no engine-out drift. Chasing exotic mechanical theories ignores the simplest explanation — a critical wing and a stabilizer that froze up at cruise altitude.
Rapid icing can’t be dismissed: a cell that surged 15,000 feet in 20 minutes can loft warm, liquid-rich air upward. But the crew said the anti-ice was coping, the outside air read -47°C, and a tail stall pitches a jet down without removing the stabilizer. That same updraft also delivers turbulence capable of overstressing a jet at cruise speed. Ice may have contributed but structural overload fits better.
Storms like that show up on radar and are entirely avoidable. Descending into a line of cells at a high power setting, in an airplane with a wing as critical as the Lear's, reflects complacency and thin experience rather than bad luck.