Japan, Taiwan and China Brace for Typhoon Dolphin

Is the typhoon expected given the weather patterns — or is the a rather unusual occurrence?
Japan, Taiwan and China Brace for Typhoon Dolphin
Above: Staff at a port in Wenzhou in China's Zhejiang province strengthen moorings on Aug. 5, 2026. Image credit: Cai Kuanyuan/Xinhua/Getty Images

The Spin


Narrative A

Typhoon Dolphin is already the fifth Category 5 typhoon of this year and this is what one can expect during the warm waters of a strong El Niño event. For instance, the very strong El Niño year of 1997 saw 11 super typhoons in the Northwest Pacific.

Narrative B

While this is the 13th typhoon of 2026, this is a rare event because Typhoon Dolphin developed just west of the International Date Line. It is very unusual for typhoons to travel that distance and still reach mainland China.


Metaculus Prediction


Go Deeper

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.7.3

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.7.3