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Trump is right to treat Turkey as a strategic opportunity rather than push a difficult NATO ally further away. Ankara remains crucial to Black Sea security, controls access between Europe and the Middle East and has leverage with both Moscow and Washington. A carefully negotiated path back to F-35s and advanced engines could pull Turkey closer to the U.S. while giving Trump leverage to demand concrete concessions from Erdoğan in return.
Trump risks rewarding Erdoğan's strategic ambiguity instead of demanding clarity. Ankara plays both sides with Russia, uses NATO leverage to extract concessions and pursues an increasingly assertive regional agenda. Handing Turkey F-35s and advanced engines despite those tensions would give Erdoğan a major strategic prize while asking little in return — and leave Washington with less leverage over Ankara.