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Study Suggests Atlantic Ocean Current Collapse Risk Has Risen Above 50%

Is the Atlantic current's collapse an existential civilizational emergency or an overhyped climate scenario?

Published APR 16

Study Suggests Atlantic Ocean Current Collapse Risk Has Risen Above 50%

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Above: Michael Böttinger from the German Climate Computing Center points to the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 25, 2024. Image credit: Marcus Brandt/picture alliance/Getty Images

The Facts

New research published in the journal Science Advances found that climate models predicting the steepest slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are the most accurate, estimating a 42% to 58% deceleration by 2100 — a level scientists say would almost certainly lead to collapse.
guardian
Bdnews24
The AMOC has already reached its weakest level in 1,600 years, and scientists first identified warning signs of a potential tipping point in 2021. The system has collapsed in Earth's past, with the last such event occurring roughly 12,000 years ago.
Independent
FOX 22/ABC 7
A collapse of the AMOC would potentially shift tropical rainfall belts relied upon by millions for agriculture, bring extreme cold winters and summer droughts to western Europe, and raise sea levels around the Atlantic by 50 to 100 centimeters (19.7 to 39.4 inches).
The Irish Times
Daily Mail
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said the probability of an AMOC shutdown has risen from an earlier estimate of around 5% to more than 50%, warning the tipping point could be reached "in the middle of this century."
CNN
guardian
Researchers used a statistical method called ridge regression — rarely applied in climate science — to compare real-world ocean observations with models, finding that salinity patterns in the South Atlantic were key to identifying the most reliable projections.
Science
Daily Mail
Scientists warn that current projections may still underestimate the AMOC's decline, as most climate models do not account for meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet. New modeling also suggests an AMOC collapse could release up to 640 billion tons of CO2 from the Southern Ocean, raising global temperatures by an additional 0.2°C.
Irish Examiner
New Scientist

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The Spin

Climate-skeptic narrative

The collapse of the Atlantic Ocean current is an alarmist trope that has even migrated into the Hollywood imagination. However, the real science doesn't show that there's a pressing threat whatsoever. The process for the slowdown of the current is extremely slow. When questionable modeling and assumptions are stripped away, the case for imminent collapse falls apart.

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Climate-concerned narrative

The AMOC collapse risk has jumped from 5% to over 50% — a full-fledged canary in the coal mine. Cutting emissions to net zero is the only path that avoids plunging Europe into extreme cold, devastating African harvests, and triggering catastrophic sea level rise. Every ton of carbon pollution burned today locks in a future that generations won't be able to undo.

New Scientist

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