Study Suggests Atlantic Ocean Current Collapse Risk Has Risen Above 50%
Is the Atlantic current's collapse an existential civilizational emergency or an overhyped climate scenario?
Above: Michael Böttinger from the German Climate Computing Center points to the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 25, 2024. Image credit: Marcus Brandt/picture alliance/Getty Images
The Spin
Climate-skeptic narrative
The collapse of the Atlantic Ocean current is an alarmist trope that has even migrated into the Hollywood imagination. However, the real science doesn't show that there's a pressing threat whatsoever. The process for the slowdown of the current is extremely slow. When questionable modeling and assumptions are stripped away, the case for imminent collapse falls apart.
Climate-concerned narrative
The AMOC collapse risk has jumped from 5% to over 50% — a full-fledged canary in the coal mine. Cutting emissions to net zero is the only path that avoids plunging Europe into extreme cold, devastating African harvests, and triggering catastrophic sea level rise. Every ton of carbon pollution burned today locks in a future that generations won't be able to undo.