Report: 90% of Coastal Studies Underestimated Sea Levels by 27cm
The Facts
- Researchers from Wageningen University analyzed 385 peer-reviewed studies on coastal vulnerability published between 2009 and 2025 and found that approximately 90% failed to incorporate direct sea level measurements and instead relied on geoid models that underestimated coastal water heights.
- According to their study published on Wednesday in Nature, the studies underestimated baseline coastal sea levels by an average of 24-27 centimeters (9.4-10.6 inches) globally, with discrepancies reaching up to 1-1.5 meters (3.2-4.9 feet) in parts of Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
- Geoid models estimate sea level based on Earth's gravitational field and rotation, but do not account for factors such as ocean currents, winds, tides, temperature and salinity that influence actual sea levels at coastlines.
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The Spin
Climate-skeptic narrative
Sea level rise projections have been wildly exaggerated by climate activists who manipulate data to spread fear. Apocalyptic predictions of 5 or 6 feet by 2100 haven't materialized because the actual rise mirrors last century's modest 8 inches. Climate scientists themselves now push back against doom-mongers, warning that exaggerating the threat fuels unnecessary anxiety and undermines credibility.
Climate-concerned narrative
Coastal sea levels are actually 27 centimeters higher than previously assumed in 90% of impact studies, meaning 80 million people live below sea level today — 50 million more than previously realized. This systematic underestimation hits the Global South hardest, where huge populations face devastating coastal flooding earlier than expected. The threat of sea level rise has been dangerously underestimated, not exaggerated.
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