US-Iran Nuclear Talks Resume in Rome Amid Enrichment Dispute

US-Iran Nuclear Talks Resume in Rome Amid Enrichment Dispute
Above: The Iranian delegation departs second after the conclusion of the fifth round of indirect nuclear talks with the U.S., mediated by Oman, at the Omani Embassy residence in Rome, Italy on May 23, 2025. Image copyright:  Baris Seckin/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Spin

Anti-Iran narrative

The U.S. must hold firm on its red line against Iran's uranium enrichment. Tehran's defiance, claiming enrichment is "nonnegotiable" is a ploy to extract concessions. With enough highly enriched uranium for multiple bombs and a history of violating nuclear agreements, Iran can't be trusted. If talks fail, Trump must escalate sanctions and, if necessary, strike nuclear sites to ensure a denuclearized Iran. The world simply cannot risk a nuclear-armed Tehran.

Pro-Iran narrative

Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy, including uranium enrichment, is non-negotiable under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The U.S. knows these zero-enrichment demands are unreasonable and will only provoke escalation, especially as U.S. and Israeli officials propose the idea of bombing Iran. Diplomacy, not ultimatums, is the path forward. Iran's defensive posture is a response to aggression, and sanctions and military threats only harden its resolve.

Cynical narrative

Neither the U.S., Israel, nor Iran is blameless. Israel has long sought to overthrow Iran, as it did — through military action or bribery — with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya, and other Arab and African states. Iran’s Mullahs exploit U.S. and Israeli aggression to justify funding terrorism. A solution lies in mutual de-escalation — the West halts meddling in Iran's domestic affairs, and Iran ceases supporting proxy militias.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

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