US Economy Beats Expectations, Adds 147,000 Jobs in June

US Economy Beats Expectations, Adds 147,000 Jobs in June
Above: U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on July 01, 2025 in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

America's job market thunders forward, obliterating doomsday predictions from Democratic fearmongers who prophesied economic catastrophe under Trump. With 147,000 jobs added — exceeding expectations by 37,000 — wages rising, and unemployment falling to 4.1%, the U.S. roars triumphantly. These alarmist politicians are now silent, their dire warnings exposed as partisan hysteria against undeniable prosperity.

Anti-Trump narrative

Behind June's deceptive job growth lies alarming dysfunction: ADP reported 33,000 jobs lost while BLS claimed gains, exposing fundamental measurement flaws. Government layoffs accelerate, private sector hiring stagnates, and labor force participation plummets to historic lows. These contradictory statistics mask a deteriorating employment landscape where discouraged workers abandon hope entirely.

Narrative C

June's employment data demands measured analysis, not emotional extremes. While ADP reported job losses and BLS showed gains, both reveal a concerning deceleration in hiring. Government layoffs accelerate, labor participation plummets to historic lows, yet the private sector maintains modest growth. Neither celebration nor despair serves truth — the labor market treads water, neither thriving nor collapsing.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



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