Rubio in Riyadh to Set Up US-Russia Ukraine Peace Talks

Rubio in Riyadh to Set Up US-Russia Ukraine Peace Talks
Above: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrives at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 15, 2025. Image copyright: Sean Gallup/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Direct US-Russia dialogue highlights a pragmatic approach to ending a costly war that's gone on too long, with European nations doing nothing to stop it. Trump, who promised during the campaign to end this war, is uniquely positioned to broker peace through his relationship with Putin.

Narrative B

The exclusion of Ukraine and other European allies from initial talks undermines Ukrainian sovereignty. This approach risks rewarding Russian aggression with concessions Ukraine doesn't agree to and potentially weakens Europe's security architecture, as well as the US-European defense partnership.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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