Trump Announces Syria Sanctions Will Be Lifted

Trump Announces Syria Sanctions Will Be Lifted
Above: A vendor sells nuts at a market in Idlib, Syria on March 29, 2025.  Image copyright: Omar Albaw/Contributor/Middle East Images/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The diplomatic opening with Syria presents a unique opportunity to reshape regional dynamics and advance U.S. interests, as a Trump-Sharaa meeting could lead to significant breakthroughs in Middle East peace. The lifting of sanctions and other forms of cooperation offers substantial economic benefits, including energy exploitation rights and potential normalization with Israel, while helping to counter Iranian influence in the region.

Narrative B

Engaging with Sharaa, who remains a U.S.-designated terrorist due to his Al Qaeda past, poses significant risks and could legitimize an unstable regime. The Syrian government has yet to demonstrate meaningful reform or compliance with U.S. conditions, while violence against minority communities continues. The proposed business deals appear to be attempts to circumvent serious diplomatic and human rights concerns.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Damascus is pursuing normalization with a regime currently committing genocide so that Sharaa can improve his image with the United States. Indeed, if Syria's jihadist leader makes peace with Israel, he is not only betraying the Palestinian cause but also the Syrian people, who, by and large, support Palestinians' right to resist occupation. Syrians will gain little from normalizing with Israel, which has worked to destroy their country and steal their land.

Metaculus Prediction



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