The Facts
- A study published Wednesday in the journal Nature examined 213 heatwaves from 2000 to 2023 across 63 countries and alleged that emissions from 180 major fossil fuel and cement companies contributed to all heat events analyzed.
- The research stated that 55 heatwaves would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change, with these events becoming 10,000 times more likely than in preindustrial conditions.
- According to the research, climate change made heatwaves 20 times more likely between 2000 and 2009 and 200 times more likely between 2010 and 2019 compared to the preindustrial era, with median intensity increases ranging from 1.4°C to 1.7°C.
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The Spin
Climate-concerned narrative
This groundbreaking research finally provides the smoking gun needed to hold fossil fuel giants accountable for their role in deadly climate disasters. The evidence is crystal clear — companies like ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco have directly caused heatwaves that killed thousands of people and destroyed communities worldwide.
Climate-skeptic narrative
Fossil fuels do not directly cause heatwaves. While global temperatures have risen, heatwaves are influenced by natural climate variability, ocean-atmosphere cycles and land-use changes. Attribution models often rely on assumptions and are subject to significant uncertainties. Linking specific heatwaves to fossil fuels oversimplifies complex climate systems.
Narrative C
While this study attempts to draw direct causal links, significant legal and evidentiary challenges remain before any meaningful accountability can be achieved in courtrooms. The road to actual liability for carbon majors is still littered with complex jurisdictional questions and unresolved issues about customer emissions responsibility.
Metaculus Prediction
The Controversies
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