An asteroid might be heading for the moon. Should we nuke it?
NBC4 days
Study: 4.3% Chance Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hits Moon in 2032, Nuclear Deflection Modeled
Above: Artist rendering of NASA’s DART probe approaching asteroid Didymos and its moon Dimorphos. Image copyright: Nicholas Forder/Future Publishing/Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
Nuclear robust disruption is likely the most feasible mitigation option for 2024 YR4’s potential lunar impact in 2032. With roughly a 4% impact probability, the asteroid’s uncertain mass and limited reconnaissance window make deflection missions like DART impractical and potentially dangerous to Earth. Launching two 100-kiloton nuclear devices between late 2029 and late 2031 provides a viable option to fragment the asteroid before approach.
Narrative B
Early forecasts for 2024 YR4’s potential lunar impact in 2032 remain highly uncertain and evolve with each new observation. Even if it did hit Earth, the asteroid’s modest size — comparable to the Chelyabinsk impactor — means damage would be minor and localized. Experts emphasize tracking and data collection first, rather than drastic measures, since odds and risks are likely to drop as observations improve.
Narrative C
Deploying a nuclear device to nudge or disrupt asteroid 2024 YR4 is not just a technical challenge — it’s a geopolitical minefield. Any attempt to alter its trajectory could shift risk across borders, sparking international disputes over who controls the asteroid’s path. With China and the U.S. racing for lunar and orbital dominance, a nuclear intervention could inflame tensions, violate treaties, and set a dangerous precedent for militarizing space.