Social issues

Study: South Korea's Population Could Drop 85% by 2125

JUL 3 2025·Updated JUL 7 2025

Story

Above: BabyFair2005, a Pregnancy and Maternity exhibition held on Feb. 17, 2005, in Seoul, South Korea. Image credit: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

The Facts

South Korea's population could decline to as low as 7.53 million by 2125, representing just 15% of the current 51.68 million residents, according to a new study released on Wednesday by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future, which used internationally recognized cohort-component methodology.
UPI
Big News Network
Even under the most optimistic scenario, South Korea's population is projected to shrink to 15.73 million by 2125, which would be less than one-third of its current size, with the median projection estimating 11.15 million people by that time.
Be Korea
Korea Herald
The demographic decline is accelerating due to a compounding effect, where each successive generation becomes smaller, reducing the pool of potential parents and further accelerating the overall population decrease beyond just low birth rates.
The Korea Times
The Straits Times
By 2100, the worst-case projection shows that for every 100 working-age people between 15 and 64 years old, there could be 140 seniors aged 65 or older, compared to the current ratio of 100 working-age individuals supporting about 30 seniors.
Pulse
AA
Analysis of approximately 60,000 posts from the workplace community app Blind revealed that younger generations now prioritize money and housing over love when discussing marriage, with financial burdens consistently emerging as the dominant concern regarding childbirth decisions.
The Straits Times
Big News Network
South Korea's total fertility rate remains at 0.75 as of 2024, representing a slight increase from 0.72 in 2023 but still below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain population stability.
The Korea Times
Korea Herald

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

This demographic crisis demands immediate action through expanded financial support for families, reforms to work-life balance, and changes to immigration policy. The economic burden on young people has made marriage and childbearing financially impossible rather than a personal choice. Without bold policy interventions now, South Korea faces becoming an inverted pyramid society where dependents vastly outnumber workers.

Be Korea

Preprints.org

Narrative B

While the projections appear alarming, recent data show that South Korea's birth rate actually surged 11.6% in January 2024, with 23,947 newborns recorded — the highest January increase since 1981. The fertility rate has been rising for seven consecutive months, offering tentative signs of recovery and suggesting current trends may not continue unchanged over the next century.