NATO to Reach 2% Defense Spending Goal in 2025

NATO to Reach 2% Defense Spending Goal in 2025
Above: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte attends the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada on June 17, 2025.  Image copyright: Ukrainian Presidency/Anadolu/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

NATO must urgently boost defense spending to ensure its survival. Russia produces ammunition at four times NATO's rate despite an economy 25 times smaller. The 2% target is a key milestone and a symbol of unity, but also insufficient in today's world of uncertainty. To defend Western democracy, the alliance must go further as Putin sets his sights on further European territories.

Pro-Russia narrative

NATO's push for members to spend 5% of GDP on defense, justified by constant fearmongering over a "Russia threat," is a reckless path to escalation. This massive military buildup, constant drills, and hardline rhetoric risk provoking the very conflict they claim to prevent. As Moscow continues to advocate, security comes from diplomacy, not the endless fueling of militarization and profit.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



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