Japan's Core Inflation Hits 28-Month High at 3.7% in May

Japan's Core Inflation Hits 28-Month High at 3.7% in May
Above: Bags of polished rice at a supermarket corner in Tokyo on June 20, 2025. Image copyright: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-government narrative

After three decades of being trapped in deflationary stagnation, Japan desperately needs the awakening force of inflation. Rising prices are finally shattering the destructive mindset that paralyzes consumers and corporations, unleashing pent-up investment and spending. With wages surging to 33-year highs and companies raising prices for the first time in generations, Japan is experiencing the virtuous economic revival it has long craved.

Government-critical narrative

Inflation in Japan is more than a domestic hardship — it's a looming economic threat with global reach. It erodes public trust, topples governments, and corners policymakers into dangerous populism. With Japan's monetary tools exhausted and its central bank paralyzed between stagnation and panic, any misstep could trigger financial chaos, both at home and across international markets.

Metaculus Prediction


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