Israel, Syria Hold Advanced Talks on Security Deal

Israel, Syria Hold Advanced Talks on Security Deal
Above: President Donald Trump meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa along with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud on May 14, 2025. Image copyright: Bandar Al-Jaloud/Saudi Royal Court/Handout/Anadolu/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

This represents an opportunity to reshape Middle East dynamics after Iran's weakening and Assad's fall. This said, Israel's control of southern buffer zones remains a vital leverage and any withdrawal must come with real peace. The Golan Heights will remain sovereign Israeli territory. Expanding the Abraham Accords to include Syria would be a historic achievement — showing Israel’s readiness for peace with those who reject terror and seek stability.

Anti-Israel narrative

These talks face fundamental obstacles that make meaningful progress unlikely in the near term. Syria can't accept Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights or ongoing military operations on its territory, while domestic pressures and regional dynamics limit al-Sharaa's ability to make significant concessions. Any resulting agreement would likely be a limited security arrangement rather than genuine peace.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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