Global Natural Disasters Cost $131B in First Half of 2025

Global Natural Disasters Cost $131B in First Half of 2025
Above: A brush fire burns near homes in Pacific Palisades, California, on Jan. 7, 2025. Image copyright: David Swanson/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Climate activist narrative

These staggering losses highlight the urgent need for better disaster preparedness and climate adaptation. California's record-breaking wildfire — compounded by a state law that forces private insurers to keep rates artificially low — has left many homeowners without coverage and public programs on the brink of insolvency. Insurance alone, however, cannot shield the world from the climate crisis. Without bold, proactive measures to address its root causes, financial safety nets will continue to unravel.

Climate-skeptic narrative

Although climate change may appear to be causing greater damage, this is primarily due to rising property values, increased urbanization and higher population density in disaster-prone areas, rather than an intensification of natural events — factors that reports like this often overlook. Historical records indicate that natural variability has existed long before industrial emissions, raising doubts about whether the recent surges in costs are truly linked to climate trends.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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