Brazil: Bolsonaro Gets Over 27 Years in Prison in Coup Trial

Brazil: Bolsonaro Gets Over 27 Years in Prison in Coup Trial
Above: Jair Bolsonaro at his residence in Brasília on Sept. 11, 2025. Image copyright: Sergio Lima/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

This is a historic victory for Brazilian democracy and the rule of law. Bolsonaro chose to pursue an authoritarian adventure rather than accept electoral defeat, leaving justices with overwhelming evidence of his coup plot. The former president sought to obtain by force what voters denied him at the ballot box — coercing military leadership and planning violence against democratic institutions.

Right narrative

Bolsonaro and his co-defendants received anything but a fair trial. The First Panel of the Brazilian Supreme Court could never deliver an impartial judgment, given that a majority of its justices are either close allies of Brazilian President Lula — Bolsonaro's rival — or longtime Bolsonaro nemesis Alexandre de Moraes. It was long clear that they would be convicted.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Political split

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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.15.2

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.15.2