Baltic States and Poland to Exit Global Landmine Ban Treaty

    Baltic States and Poland to Exit Global Landmine Ban Treaty
    Above: A replica of an antipersonnel landmine prohibited under the Mine Ban Treaty sits on a table at the office of Human Rights Watch in Washington, DC, on Nov. 20, 2024.  Image copyright: BASTIEN INZAURRALDE/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    The withdrawal decision represents a necessary step to ensure effective border protection and territorial defense against increasing threats from Russia and Belarus. The changed security landscape demands maximum flexibility in defensive capabilities, particularly along NATO's eastern flank. The move sends a clear message about the determination to employ all necessary measures for national security.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    The withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention undermines decades of progress in humanitarian law and civilian protection. Landmines pose long-term risks to civilian populations and continue to cause casualties worldwide, as evidenced by their ongoing use in various conflicts. The treaty has been crucial in reducing civilian casualties and establishing international norms against indiscriminate weapons.

    Metaculus Prediction


    The Controversies



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