Burkina Faso: Al-Qaeda Affiliate Claims 200 Soldiers Killed in Major Attack

Burkina Faso: Al-Qaeda Affiliate Claims 200 Soldiers Killed in Major Attack
Above: Burkina Faso's servicemen stand guard during the burial of the soldiers killed in Gaskinde, in Ouagadougou on Oct. 8, 2022. Image copyright: Olympia de Maismont/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Foreign powers are just as involved in the terrorism that Burkina Faso is fighting as they are in the numerous assassination attempts on President Traoré. Traoré only became a threat to Western interests by systematically cutting their influence in his country, and turning to Russia while introducing sweeping reforms. The growing popularity of the young charismatic leader with his anti-imperialist and anti-neocolonialist stance speaks for itself, and it is to be hoped that Traoré will not suffer the same fate as his idol, Thomas Sankara.

Narrative B

This attack exposes the failure of Burkina Faso's military junta to improve security despite promises made when seizing power. Moreover, the regime's counterinsurgency strategy backfired by systematically encouraging state-sanctioned violence against civilians, particularly ethnic Fulanis, which has fueled militant recruitment and allowed JNIM to position itself as a protector of targeted communities. It is not foreign powers that make a coup likely, but Traoré's increasingly autocratic and irresponsible policies.

Metaculus Prediction


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