US Pushes UNSC to Back 'Immediate' Gaza Cease-fire

US Pushes UNSC to Back 'Immediate' Gaza Cease-fire
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The Facts

  • The US revised the language of a draft UN Security Council resolution for a third time in two weeks on Tuesday to back "an immediate ceasefire of roughly six-weeks in Gaza together with the release of all hostages," reflecting the recent comments made by US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris.

  • Former Pres. Donald Trump, who is expected to be Pres. Joe Biden's opponent in the 2024 election, weighed in on the war in Gaza, declaring that Israel must "finish the problem." Trump, who has kept his position on the conflict vague, also implied that Hamas' Oct. 7 attack would not have happened if he were president.

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. Last week's tragic incident is just another sign that this war needs to wind down, and all of the main actors involved must work toward a more permanent resolution. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and the situation must be remedied.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but the Biden administration needs to refrain from tying Israel's hands behind its back. Hamas is simply not interested in negotiating in good faith and has consistently shown its preference for violence. In contrast, Israel has done everything it can to ensure the safety of civilians in a war it did not want. Israel will pursue its goals, which are incredibly popular with its citizens, regardless of whether it annoys Washington or anyone else.

Pro-Palestine narrative

As Israel's slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza continues unabated, the Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal campaign. Regardless of how the administration tries to spin it, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Indeed, Israel's war on Gaza would be unsustainable without US support, and Biden should enact concrete policy to stop the violence.

Metaculus Prediction

Establishment split



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