Ukrainian Troops Withdraw from Avdiivka

Ukrainian Troops Withdraw from Avdiivka
Image copyright: Libkos/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

It's imperative that the US pass the $60B military aid package for Ukraine. It's just as important that European countries plug the spending gap and elevate their commitments. Otherwise, Ukraine will continue to be short of ammunition and key supplies and will face a slow-motion defeat on the battlefield.

Pro-Russia narrative

Aside from the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed and Kyiv is now losing the war. More money for arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have fought this war against Russia without US and EU weapons. Now that these weapons are running dry, Ukraine must accept the reality that Russia will never cease its defense of the Donbas or Crimea.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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