Russia Launches Summer Offensive, Analysts Say

    Russia Launches Summer Offensive, Analysts Say
    Above: A soldier looks at a fire caused by artillery fire on July 29, 2024 in Donetsk region, Frontline, Ukraine. Image copyright: Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Pro-Ukraine narrative

    Due to manpower and materiel constraints, Russia will not have the capacity to launch a new offensive after this attack. While this development is not expected to deliver any real results, Russia will likely have pulsating attacks in order to sell small gains to an audience at home.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    Ukraine, alongside its Western backers, has demonstrated to Russia that they have no interest in peace. Russia will continue with the objectives of its Special Military Operation, including this latest defensive set of maneuvers, to protect national security interests.

    Metaculus Prediction


    The Controversies



    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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