Report: China's GDP Grows 5.3% in Q1 2024

Report: China's GDP Grows 5.3% in Q1 2024
Image copyright: Kevin Frayer/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-China narrative

China's economy has grown faster than expected in the first three months of the year despite COVID, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the US-China trade war. Given the country's stronger-than-expected exports and manufacturing capital expenditure and several fiscal and monetary policy measures taking effect, the PRC's second-quarter GDP would accelerate to over 5.5%, consolidating the economic recovery in 2024.

Anti-China narrative

While China's growth has been stronger than anticipated, it's uneven. The world's second-largest economy is battling real estate crises, unemployment, deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and mounting government debt. Just this week alone, the blue-chip CSI300 Index tumbled 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite indexes fell 1%. Despite the "promising" data, it's clear that momentum is waning in the Chinese economy.

Metaculus Prediction


Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

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