Premier Li Qiang Announces 5.2% GDP Growth for China in 2023

Premier Li Qiang Announces 5.2% GDP Growth for China in 2023
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The Facts

  • Chinese Premier Li Qiang revealed that China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by approximately 5.2% in 2023 while speaking at the opening ceremony of the 2024 World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting on Tuesday.

  • The National Bureau of Statistics of China confirmed a day later that total GDP in 2023 had risen to approximately 126T yuan (~ US$17.7T) in 2023, claiming that despite a "complex and grave international environment," the economy had "witnessed the momentum of recovery."

The Spin

Pro-China narrative

Despite uncertain international economic conditions, the Chinese economy has once again defied expectations and surpassed the government's GDP target in 2023. PRC government policies continue to lead China out of the depths of the COVID pandemic and, despite a lagging real estate sector, 2024 looks set to be another solid year for economic advancement.

Anti-China narrative

With 2023 seeing some of China's weakest economic growth in over three decades alongside a second consecutive year of population decline, there is much to worry about in Beijing. Following China's working population specifically seeing a decline of over 10M last year, China's GDP will almost certainly see a further decline in 2024 as the world's second-largest economy continues to grapple with a plethora of domestic dangers

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that China's GDP will overtake the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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