Ukraine Appears to Launch Counteroffensive

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

There has been a significant uptick in fighting in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, likely indicating the beginning of Ukraine's counteroffensive, though this hasn't been confirmed. Either way, any counteroffensive would likely start with feints and diversionary attacks. It's too early to say whether these attacks are the primary assaults.

Pro-Russia narrative

Ukraine has launched a large-scale counteroffensive effort in the Donetsk region. However, Russian forces repelled the attacks there and inflicted scores of losses on Ukraine's military, vehicles, and equipment. This attempt has been repulsed almost as soon as it got underway.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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