Opinion: US and China may prefer a joint Kuomintang-TPP presidential win in Taiwan
South China Morning PostNov 14, 2023
The Facts
Taiwan's two largest opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP), have agreed to run a joint campaign against the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in January's presidential election.
Under the agreement, signed on Wednesday, KMT and TPP nominees — Hou Yu-ih and Ko Wen-je — as well as former Taiwanese Pres. Ma Ying-jeou will each recommend an expert to analyze opinion polls from Nov. 7 to 17 to determine the structure of the presidential ticket.
The Spin
Narrative A
This unprecedented blue-white coalition may have a crucial role in reducing cross-strait tensions and preventing a conflict that would be in the interest of neither Washington nor Beijing. It's certain that such a government could be fractious due to contrasting economic and political platforms, but, at least there would be peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait — a prospect that isn't likely under Lai.
Narrative B
If Taiwanese voters were to elect this Beijing-backed, power-grabbing, unprincipled coalition, the nation would again be forced to rely on Chinese goodwill instead of deepening its integration into the international community. It's clear that Lai is the best option for Taiwan, as he is the only candidate who has presented a plan to manage the country and proposed a vision of the government.
Nerd narrative
There's a 56% chance that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan, according to the Metaculus prediction community.