Storms Impact Russian Navy as European Nations Boycott OSCE Summit

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The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed due to strategic misjudgments and operational setbacks. The attempt to launch simultaneous offensives in multiple directions led to the dispersal of forces and the lack of significant successes in any key areas. Its inability to keep momentum on critical fronts has allowed Russian troops to take control and push Ukraine into a defensive position. This has been a blunder for Ukraine and the beginning of its military demise.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

This has become a war of the skies, and Russia still hasn't invested in the Air Force as much as it should. Due to this lack of investment, and by sticking with its traditional strategy of protecting infrastructure, Moscow has limited its ability to track down and eliminate Ukrainian forces on the ground. In contrast, Kyiv has received far superior air warfare support from NATO — if Ukraine can garner further support, it still has a chance to hit Russia in a way with which Russia is very unfamiliar.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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