Russia: Stranded Air India Flight Departs for San Francisco

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The Spin

Narrative A

Nations like China and India are disregarding Western sanctions on Moscow for the sake of short-sighted business opportunism. The lucrative opportunities posed by undermining Western boycotts and continuing to use Russian airspace are hollow, however, as the countries are putting their own trade and commerce deals with nations including the US at risk. Rather than facilitating ongoing conflict in sovereign Ukraine by doing deals with Russia, India, China, and others should join with Western forces in punishing Russia's economy.

Narrative B

While nations like China and India — favored by and allowed to fly carriers freely over Russia — are being given an immediate edge over their Western competitors, the way in which flights generate more traffic mean any restrictions on key airspace, such as Russia's, harm the whole industry. Officials must recognize that, rather than embroiling this still-recovering, post-pandemic industry within ongoing geopolitical tensions, they must reach a deal to open up flight routes over Russia for all countries to protect aviation.

Metaculus Prediction


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