The Facts
- The Russian defense ministry announced on Tuesday that tactical fighter jet exercises were conducted over the Baltic Sea as a test of combat readiness.
- Aside from testing the "readiness of the flight crew," the ministry also said the pilots are on "round-the-clock combat duty" near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave [between Poland and Lithuania on the coast of the Baltic Sea.]
- This came one day after Russia scrambled jets in the Black Sea to intercept British military and reconnaissance aircraft, who turned away without incident. The UK said it has scrambled jets 21 times over the last 21 days in response to Russian aircraft, as Black and Baltic Sea confrontations between Russia and the West increase in frequency.
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The Spin
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia, as a sovereign nation, has every right to conduct military exercises. It's the West, not Russia, that is escalating tensions by trying to provoke a confrontation by encroaching on Russian airspace in the Baltic and Black Seas. Russia will defend its territorial integrity by any means, and it would be wise for the West to stop its brinkmanship in the region.
Anti-Russia narrative
To compensate for its floundering invasion of Ukraine, Russia has taken to wild displays of force as a desperate means to demonstrate its prowess. The war in Ukraine was a blunder that pushed neighboring Finland into the arms of NATO, further weakening Russia's Baltic aspirations. These drills are mere bluster, masking the Kremlin's dire circumstances at home and abroad.
Metaculus Prediction
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