Poland’s opposition leader Tusk declares win after exit poll shows ruling populists losing majority
Los Angeles TimesOct 15, 2023
Polls: Poland’s Law and Justice Party Set to Lose Majority
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The Facts
Exit polls in a contentious and important Polish election indicated that the ruling Law and Justice party is on the verge of losing control, with the opposition having the best chance of forming the country's next government.
Ipsos' exit poll indicates that although the right-wing populist Law and Justice party is expected to win the most seats in Poland's general election, it is unlikely to win a third term in power.
The Spin
Left narrative
These election results are good news for Poland. This could signal the end of eight years of bad politics, which have frequently caused Poland and the EU to clash. A new administration could have a significant impact on Poland's future, the balance of power in the EU, and the course of the Ukrainian conflict. This is cause for celebration.
Right narrative
The ruling nationalist conservative party won more votes than any single party and said it wanted to build a government led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. It makes sense that the largest party would also have the first opportunity to try to create a new government. We will know more on Tuesday when the state electoral commission presents its final results. It's still possible that the Law and Justice party will yield great sway over Poland's politics.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.