Ohio Voters Reject Change to State Constitution

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    The Facts

    • In a win for abortion rights groups ahead of a referendum this fall, Ohioans on Tuesday rejected a Republican-backed ballot measure, known as Issue 1, that would raise the threshold needed to amend the state's constitution from a simple majority to 60%.

    • With nearly all ballots counted, unofficial results showed that roughly 57% of the voters, more than 1.7M people, voted to defeat the proposal while nearly 43%, more than 1.3M people, were in favor.


    The Spin

    Democratic narrative

    While this victory far from indicates the GOP will lose its grip on power in Ohio, it does reveal that abortion remains a key issue for voters ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Abortion-rights ballot measures have been undefeated even in red states since Roe v. Wade fell, a streak that suggests Republican-controlled state legislatures can be circumvented by direct democracy.

    Republican narrative

    This vote doesn't show the success of direct democracy, but rather how outside progressive groups can undermine the people's voice by funneling millions in dark money to attack state constitutions and advance their radical agenda. Given that sitting on the sidelines is a strategy doomed to fail, pro-life supporters must stand united and firm to protect the unborn.


    Metaculus Prediction



    Political split

    LEFT

    RIGHT

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