China

IMF Lifts Global Growth Forecasts

JAN 31 2023·Updated FEB 1 2023

Story

Image credit: wsj

The Facts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report on Monday, revising its previous global growth projections upward by 0.2%.
wsj
According to the report, global output is forecast to slow to 2.9% in 2023, down from 3.4% last year, as central banks continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, but a global recession would likely be avoided due to resilient customers and the reopening of China's economy.
nytimes
Britain is the only member of the G7 group of leading developed nations expected to see a recession this year, with the IMF now calculating a 0.6 percentage point contraction.
Al Jazeera
This comes as "surprisingly resilient" consumption and investment in the third quarter of 2022, a robust labor market, and stronger consumer balance sheets were reported in the US and Eurozone.
Al Jazeera
Yet, the slowdown may be more pronounced in advanced economies, with China and India being projected to account for 50% of global growth.
Axios
The IMF also expects that over 80% of countries will face lower headline inflation this year compared to 2022, estimating an annual average rate of 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% the next year.
CNBC

Sources Split

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CENTER

RIGHT

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CRIT

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ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

This year will certainly be challenging, but it may well represent the turning point of the global economy. Though uncertainty still looms, confidence that a global recession can be avoided has improved as the world's three main economic engines – China, Europe, and the US – have outperformed expectations and averted some predicted problems so far.

wapo

Narrative B

Indeed, there's reason to be cheerful about the world economy as inflation has eased in the US, energy prices have plunged in Europe, and China has gotten rid of its destructive "zero-COVID" policy. It's too early, however, to dismiss the risk of a global recession as overheated labor markets and the energy crisis still endure.

The Economist