British Intelligence: Ukraine Front Lines Remain Largely Static

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The Spin

Narrative A

Ukraine will likely fail to make significant advances in its counteroffensive and is expected to fall well short of its stated goals. Even if Ukraine is able to penetrate Russia's multilayered defenses, how much further would these forces realistically be able to advance?

Narrative B

While the Ukrainian offensive may be advancing slowly against well-prepared Russian defensive lines, they are continuing to push forward and have gained momentum in several axes of attack. Ukraine is still able to achieve its goals.

Metaculus Prediction


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