Taiwan: War with PRC Would be "Disastrous" for Both Sides

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    The Facts

    • On Thurs, Taiwan's Defense Minister stated that a war between Taiwan and the PRC would be "disastrous" for both sides, and that the Russia-Ukraine conflict was influencing security in the Asia-Pacific and across the Strait. He also noted there were no irregular PRC troop movements currently near Taiwan.

    • Taiwan is reportedly studying Ukraine's response to the Russian invasion for "asymmetric warfare" planning.

    The Spin

    Pro-China narrative

    While the world focused on Ukraine, America is colluding with Taiwan's secessionists and undermining Chinese security. The US should honor the historic achievement of Nixon's agreement and embrace its wisdom. Doing so promotes coexistence, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation.

    Anti-China narrative

    Taiwan is a vital US partner, and its continued peace is in the interest of the US and the rest of the globe. US support for Taiwan is unwavering, regardless of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    Narrative C

    Putin's invasion of Ukraine has made a PRC invasion of Taiwan more likely. Xi Jinping is more aggressive than his predecessors, and China, not Russia, is the true spearhead of global authoritarianism. The autocrats are striking back.

    Metaculus Prediction

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