China releases white paper on Taiwan question and reunification, outlines irreversible historical process, stronger capability and rock-solid resolution in new era
Global TimesOct 24, 2022
According to an official Chinese document released on Wed., China has withdrawn its pledge not to send troops or administrators to Taiwan if it takes control of the island - a promise previously included in the 1993 and 2000 white papers.
The updated document is titled "The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era." The "new era" is often associated with Pres. Xi's rule, who is expected to secure a third term as China's president later this year.
The political landscape has changed since the previous white papers were released and this is a much needed update to address the current tensions. The new document isn't a threat, but rather makes clarifications about what circumstances would require China to use force, and reaffirms the goal of reunifying China and Taiwan using peaceful measures.
If China truly cared about Taiwan's political autonomy, it wouldn't be scratching the promises it made in its previous white papers. The removal of its pledge not to send troops, coupled with the recent military drills in the Taiwan Strait, serve as a warning that the sovereign state and its Western allies should prepare to defend the island from a likely invasion.
There is a 25% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.