Pakistan: Khan Announces 'Long March' on Capital

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The Spin


Narrative A

Amid a crisis with a cash-strapped government reeling after catastrophic flooding, Khan is playing poker with this "long march" with Sharif and the country's military establishment. It's unknown if Khan can regain power, but his popularity continues to surge.


Narrative B

The corruption charges brought against Khan are just a minor preliminary move from Pakistan's military-controlled bureaucracy. If these don't stick, more serious allegations will be brought to keep the former PM out of office, posing serious roadblocks for him.


Metaculus Prediction


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