Pelosi Promises US Won't Abandon Taiwan

    Image copyright: Reuters [via New York Times]

    The Spin

    Pro-China narrative

    This visit isn't a miscalculation but an intentional provocation by the US. The US doesn't formally have any diplomatic relations with Taipei, but they do have formal diplomatic relations with China, and the visit to Taiwan contradicts the One China Policy and threatens PRC sovereignty.

    Anti-China narrative

    As a global champion of democracy and human rights, it's only right that the US should support Taiwan and its democratic government. Any tension or military conflict caused by a visit by Speaker Pelosi to the island would be an outlandish escalation on China's part.

    Metaculus Prediction


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