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Goldman Sachs Raises Odds of Recession in US, Cuts GDP Outlook

    story
    JUN 2022
    Image copyright: Xinhua/Getty Images [via Fox Business]
    story last updated JAN 2023

    The Spin

    Establishment-critical narrative

    80% of economists see conditions lining up for a period of prolonged 'stagflation' in the US: high inflation rates combined with stubbornly low growth and lower employment. In fact, those conditions are baked into the Fed's current rate hikes - which signal lingering inflationary concerns - that will no doubt lead to higher unemployment.

    CNBC

    Pro-establishment narrative

    So the era of cheap money is over, right? Hardly. The Fed is raising rates to fight inflation, but those inflationary pressures are most likely transitory. Once higher rates have brought inflation back down to a manageable - even desirable - level of 2-3%, rates are likely to return to their new lower normal.

    New York Times

    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

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