Day 25 Close: Russia Calls on Mariupol to Surrender As Zelenskyy Urges Israel To Help

    Image copyright: The New York Times

    The Facts

    • Russia has given Mariupol until 5am Moscow time on Mon. to surrender, guaranteeing safe passage to those who lay down their arms. Fighting continued in the city over the weekend, with Russian forces bombing an art school where 400 civilians were sheltering, according to Ukrainian officials.

    • One of Europe's largest metallurgical plants, the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, was also badly damaged by Russian shelling, according to officials on Sun.


    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to re-write history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.


    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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