Day 26 Close: Russia Captures Military Command HQ, Ukraine Refuses Mariupol Surrender Offer

    Image copyright: Reuters [via The Guardian]

    The Facts

    • Russia on Mon. claimed to have seized a Ukrainian military command headquarters, taking 61 Ukrainian prisoners. They also reported a missile attack on an alleged training center in the Western Rivne region, which they say killed 80 foreign and Ukrainian fighters.

    • Earlier in the day, Ukraine rejected Russia's deadline for the surrender of the beseiged port city of Mariupol, leaving an uncertain fate for trapped civilians. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Deputy PM Iryna Vereshchuk confirmed that humanitarian corridors would be opened eastwards and westwards of Mariupol.

    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to re-write history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Metaculus Prediction

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