Day 259 Roundup: Fighting Intensifies in Kherson; Grain Deal in Question

Image copyright: AP Photos [via AP News]

The Facts

  • According to multiple reports on Wednesday, fighting has intensified in the southern region of Kherson. Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-appointed deputy governor of Kherson, said Ukrainian attacks came in "quite large columns" in three directions and alleged that "several hundred" advancing troops were killed. Stremousov was later reportedly killed in an unrelated car crash on Wednesday.

  • According to a Ukrainian military account from Operational Command South, Russia lost 55 soldiers, four tanks, and a number of other weapons in Ukrainian strikes. Kyiv also claimed to have destroyed two ammunition depots. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian reports of military losses could be independently confirmed. According to Russian state media, Russian forces have been ordered to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson.

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia is weaponizing food insecurity at a cost to innocent people in Africa and the Middle East. This is an inhumane violation of human rights that is utterly unacceptable on the world stage. The West must do something about how easily the Kremlin can unilaterally break treaties.

Pro-Russia narrative

It is Western nations that are undermining this agreement. Russia — a key global supplier of fertilizer and other foodstuffs — hasn't seen sufficient evidence of progress in implementing the Russian parts of the deal, namely the easing of sanctions on Russian food exports. Why should it return to the deal if its terms aren't being fairly implemented?

Metaculus Prediction

Establishment split



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