China-Taiwan Tensions Continue Under Backdrop of Ukraine Invasion

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    The Facts

    • Russia's invasion of Ukraine has provided a backdrop of speculation that China's pressure on Taiwan may also increase.

    • On Thursday, nine PRC aircrafts - eight J-16 fighters and a Yun-8 technical reconnaissance plane - breached Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). A US defense official stated "this is not unusual" activity.

    The Spin

    Anti-China narrative

    Putin's invasion of Ukraine just made a PRC invasion of Taiwan more likely. Xi Jinping is more aggressive than his predecessors, and China, not Russia, is the true spearhead of global authoritarianism. The autocrats are striking back.

    Narrative B

    Despite the rampant speculation amindst the shockwaves from Russia's invasion are being felt in Taiwan, military action remains unlikely and outside events will have relatively little effect on Beijing's calculations.

    Metaculus Prediction

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